Screen Actors Guild Nominations

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

Analysis: Huge break for The Grand Budapest Hotel and a horrible showing for any late-breaking film-- Paramount couldn't get screeners out to SAG for Selma, which is an unfortunate loss, but no Unbroken or Into the Woods hurts too.  Curious, that Imitation Game and Theory (the two battling genius Brit pics) got in with such ease.

BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Analysis: Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne are untouchable.  Big boost for Carell, considering a softening buzz for Foxcatcher and a much bigger one for Gyllenhaal.  Missing: David Oyelowo from Selma, Timothy Spall from Mr. Turner, Chadwick Boseman from Get On Up, Ralph Fiennes from The Grand Budapest Hotel, Jack O'Connell from Unbroken and Bill Murray from St. Vincent.

BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Anaylsis: Aniston's late-entry work in Cake actually worked-- this is major (could Oscar be possible?), but Moore is likely so far ahead that she may prove unbeatable.  Curiously, Marion Cotillard's recent critical cred didn't catch on with SAG members.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Analysis: Likely Oscar roster, including the lazy Duvall mention.  Simmons is likely frontrunner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Analysis: Watts' mention is truly jarring (Murray couldn't have been that far behind in Lead Actor), but the rest seems pretty much in line with how things will go down including the default Streep mention.  Jessica Chastain's A Most Violent Year performance and Laura Dern's Wild role, not acknowledged by SAG, should take Watts' place with Oscar