Golden Globes Predictions

It's Golden Globes time again and here are my last minute, somewhat thought out predictions for how the boozy, Tina Fey/Amy Poehler fest will turn out.  The other day, the HFPA website had a hiccup declaring Ava DuVernay's Selma and Rob Marshall's Into the Woods winners, but that was either an ad-hoc to trend on Twitter or a legitimate glitch.  Or, who knows....

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Big Eyes," Big Eyes- Lana Del Rey, Daniel Heath
"Glory," Selma- John Legend, Common
"Mercy Is," Noah- Patti Smith, Lenny Kaye
"Opportunity," Annie- Greg Kurstin, Sia, Will Gluck
"Yellow Flicker Beat," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1- Joel Little, Lorde

The Globes like stars and to be of the moment which could signal wins for Del Rey or Lorde, but I'm thinking this is a pretty easy win for Selma's "Glory." They'll get stars on the podium and it's the most respective movie of the group.  Plus, Selma's 4 nominations meant the HFPA must like the film and here's it's easiest victory.  Grumble: where is "Lost Stars" from Begin Again!!!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Birdman- Antonio Sanchez 
Gone Girl- Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross 
The Imitation Game- Alexandre Desplat 
Interstellar- Hans Zimmer 
The Theory of Everything- Jóhann Jóhannson

Hard one and actually a pretty good line-up-- 2014 was a memorable year for scores (even middlebrow bait like Imitation and Theory are a good fit here.)  Really, it could go anywhere, but I'm thinking Birdman's drums carry it to a victory.  Added bonus is Sanchez's score was deemed ineligible by the Academy so the Globes can feel all superior and stuff.  Kind of thinking the Oscar goes to Theory of Everything.  Thoughts?

2014: The Contenders

Last year about this time I indulged in a bit of madness trying to foresee what the 2013 Oscar contenders might be with a round-up of what the major, mini-major and straight-out mini studios had up their respective sleeves. I managed to include nearly every major film nominated for Oscars last year, with the notable exception of one-- at this time one year ago, I (and likely you) hadn't the sense that Philomena would go on and be The Weinstein Company's saving grace in the 2013 awards circuit.  In fact, I hadn't heard of it at all, further proof that early prognosticating is likely an unhealthy sickness.  That being said, why not go for a ridiculously early trip down the rabbit hole yet again.

20th CENTURY FOX

Gone Girl

Fox Searchlight, the mini beneath the Big Fox banner, usually gets all the glory and that was certainly the case in 2013 where 12 Years a Slave bagged the top prize while films coming out of major fold were almost completely ignored save for the obligatory John Williams Score nod for his work in The Book Thief, but Big Fox (Searchlight will be profiled further down) had a banner 2012 with Life of Pi and has a few potential cards in the running for 2014.  Two big ones, and mighty risky ones, but if they work could be major.  Director Ridley Scott struck out for the studio with 2013's The Counselor, but returns this Christmas with Exodus, a biblical epic starring Christian Bale as Moses-- it's been a long while since a film of that ilk has scored with the Academy, but there's a mini-resurgence of them going on this year (Noah.)  The other big card is Gone Girl, David Fincher's eagerly awaited adaptation of Gillian Flynn's best-selling novel-- it's a mystery starring Ben Affleck (2012's Oscar pity-partier and eventual golden boy) and Rosamund Pike.  Might not be the Academy's taste, but his Girl With a Dragon Tattoo didn't seem so on paper either and ended up earning 5 nods and a statue for its Film Editing.  Fincher, whether he cares or not, is in the club and thus it merits inclusion.  Also on the roster is the based on true events drama True Story, which tells of the relationship between a journalist and a murderer-- the caveat is that they're played by James Franco and Jonah Hill from untested director Rupert Goold; then again Hill is now a 2-time Oscar nominee.  The Fault in Our Stars is a teenage romantic weepie with Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort; probably not Oscar-bait, but the screenplay comes from the (500) Days of Summer/The Spectacular Now team of Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, who one day should breakout with the Academy.  The rest of Big Fox's Oscar chances lie in blockbusters hoping to break in with technical nods like X-Men: Days of Future Past (never once has has the series been nominated for anything) and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (the 2011 film received a Visual Effects bid) and animated films Rio 2 (the first film didn't get into Animated Feature, but earned a Best Song nomination), The Book of Life, Home, Mr. Peobody and Sherman and How to Train Your Dragon 2 (the latter two are from DreamWorks Animation with Fox distributing.)

Final Oscar Predictions

It's almost here...and over.  This exceedingly long awards season (prolonged a week further thanks to the Winter Olympics) will come to a conclusion in nearly twenty-four hours time and well, it's been a bit of bumpy ride.  2013, by most accounts an above average (if mildly over-praised) calendar year comes to a close with many races still fairly tight.  Will surprises abound?  I suppose they already have considering the Best Picture prize is still not the for-sure guarantee that it usually is the night before Hollywood's biggest night.  And for all the nuttiness that occurred last season, the 2013 awards season has been even more rule-breaking and slightly infuriating-- yes, Ben Affleck's lack of a Best Director nomination was unprecedented, but Argo was a clean-sweeper once the guilds had their say.

2013 is way more nutballs by comparison with 12 Years a Slave and Gravity as the dueling, flip-a-coin frontrunners, while wily American Hustle hopes to messy up Oscar predictions even further-- the David O. Russell con job raked in 10 nominations (the most ever for this year-- tied with Gravity.)  While a great many races appear almost neatly settled, there's still quite a few of those nagging categories that will leave us in suspense until the envelope is open...and Best Picture is one of them.  Phew!  Here's my feeble attempt to break down the 2013 Oscar race.  I will go in the order in which the Oscars where presented at last years ceremony.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Five dudes, all of whom are in movie nominated for Best Picture, compete and four of them will in all likelihood graciously clap when Jared Leto's name is called for Dallas Buyers Club.  Surprisingly, a challenger never really took shape throughout the season as Leto streamlined through the awards circuit winning nearly everything in sight.  Even, if only for a second, he looked vulnerable after a bit of fuss to his Golden Globe speech spelled slight trouble, the actor and 60 Seconds From Mars front-man adjusted and never looked back.  Barkhad Abdi recently won the BAFTA (a prize that Leto strangely wasn't up for) for his role in Captain Phillips and Michael Fassbender looked a threat before the race started for 12 Years a Slave and his adamant, non-campaigning fuss, but neither looks to challenge.

Prediction: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The short films used to be a sore ache in the Oscar prediction game, but after least years decision to open up voting to all Academy members added with the slight uptick in notoriety for shorts (all of them were granted brief theatrical releases this year), perhaps that's a thing of the past.  This year, the frontrunner is likely Get a Horse, the bouncy old school meets new school Mickey Mouse hybrid that played in front of Frozen.  It is easily the most seen of the five films and, as a novelty, would provide Mickey his first Oscar-winning vehicle ever.  Feral and Mr. Hublot have fans and warm critical notices, but expect Get a Horse to triumph.

Prediction: Get a Horse

ANIMATED FEATURE
Things looked dire in this category until Frozen blew in and became a worldwide phenomenon, nearly ensuring an animated feature Oscar for the Mouse House on top of its (almost) billion dollar gross.  The art housers admire The Wind Rises but this looks to be one of the easier predictions of the evening.

Prediction: Frozen

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The last few years, the Cinematography Oscar has been in a bit of rut, honoring effects-heavy behemoths like Avatar, Hugo and Life of Pi sparking a debate as to the efforts of the Director of Photography versus a film's visual effects artists.  Well, with Gravity so far ahead of the pack this year, that debate will linger at least a year longer, but the silver lining is that multiple nominee, but Oscar-less Emmanuel Lubezki (the poet who shot Y Tu Mama Tambien,Children of Men, The Tree of Life, The New World, Sleepy Hollow) will garner a statue, and that's a good thing.  The competition is impressive (Inside Llewyn Davis, The Grandmaster, Nebraska and Prisoners), but this is one (of potentially very many) awards in the bag for Gravity.

Prediction: Gravity

Golden Globe Predictions

Let's see how badly I can embarrass myself this year.

BEST PICTURE (Drama): Gravity

WHY?  The Hollywood Foreign Press seems likely to go big with Gravity this year.  They like spectacle (they went for Avatar over The Hurt Locker a few years back) and Alfonso Cuarón's space odyssey was the biggest spectacle of the year.  This is a tough year, and while 12 Years a Slave is on its heels, that film (despite its pedigree) may be too specifically American (not to mention difficult to watch) for the eighty some odd (and surely quite odd) members of the mostly European-based HFPA.

BEST PICTURE (Musical or Comedy): American Hustle

WHY?  The HFPA clearly adored David O. Russell's freely associative ABSCAM con film (awarded it seven nods), plus it's an a newfound Oscar frontrunner and truly the most entertaining film in the group.  This should stand as one of the easier picks of the night.


BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

WHY?  Steve McQueen may take this-- the HFPA more than than often swap Picture and Director-- but Gravity is such a directorial feat that it seems likely that even if there is a shift between Picture and Director, Cuarón will remain the one to beat here.

SAG Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations are upon us.  Now things get serious.  Here's my stab at making a fool of myself.

MY PREDICTIONS:

BEST ENSEMBLE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Prisoners

WHY THEM: 12 Years is the important, can't miss nomination get of the season.  American Hustle, August: Osage County, The Butler all have august and large ensembles.  Prisoners because of its bounty of award-caliber stars in a film I didn't particularly care for (usually one or two of them gets SAG acknowledgement.)  I vetoed Wolf of Wall Street on the conceit that it just started screening (American Hustle had a full week ahead of them), Gravity because, well, duh...same for All is Lost.

WATCH OUT FOR: Blue Jasmine, Her, Dallas Buyers Club, Inside Llewyn Davis, Fruitvale Station, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

WHY THEM:  Dern, Ejiofor, McConaughey and Redford seem unmovable.  That fifth slot is vulnerable, but SAG is a place where The Butler can make its mark.

WATCH OUT FOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Her; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

WHY THEM: Blanchett, Bullock and Thompson seem no brains.  SAG should go for the Streep, one assumes while Adams is a favorite trying something new in a newly buzzed about film.

WATCH OUT FOR: Judi Dench, Philomena; Brie Larson, Short Term 12; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha (I wish); Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said; Adéle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club  

WHY THEM:  Like all the acting categories, this one is hard to predict and a bunch of throws to the wall.  Abdi and Leto for breakthrough triumps; Hanks because he's an icon playing an icon; Fassbender because this category loves villains and Gandolfini because of industry respect.

WATCH OUT FOR: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners; Will Forte, Nebraska; Daniel Bruhl, Rush; Andrew Dice Clay, Blue Jasmine; David Oyelowo, Lee Daniels' The Butler; Matthew McConaughey, Mud; Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief; James Franco, Spring Breakers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

WHY THEM: Just passing through.  Lawrence, Nyong'o and Winfrey are the only one I'm confident about.

WATCH OUT FOR: Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave   

  

SAG Predictions-- A "Silver Lining" for Weinstein Company?

BEST ENSEMBLE
Will win: Silver Linings Playbook

Ripe after the PGA and Globe wins for Argo, where it asserts itself it the frontrunner position even as the pesky Best Director snub for Ben Affleck stings, SAG should shake things up slightly in honoring Silver Linings, if anything neatly packaged fodder for the Screen Actors Guild, with its agreeably chaotic interplay of its actors, and their diverse styles, all merging and fusing together in David O. Russell's mental illness romantic comedy.  While the huge ensembles of Argo, Lincoln and Les Miserables may split votes, this seems like the best bet.  The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was always doomed one of SAG's fatefully pleasant also-rans.  Be mindful that the Best Ensemble SAG award typically has little heft on terms of the eventual Best Picture, as last year's The Help, and other past winners like Inglourious Basterds, Gosford Park, Traffic and The Birdcage can surely attest, while others may sight that the SAG victory was the leading component to upsets like Crash.

BEST ACTOR
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Another safely assured victory in my book.  Day-Lewis' masterful portrait of Abraham Lincoln cries for attention in the very way that this actor, as always, escapes and paints a beautifully vivid character study without constrictions of legacy.  Actors will surely admire the performance as the Best Actor race has all but been solidified.

BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

I'm going with Lawrence with say a 60% likelihood, since certainty freaks you out, but the catnip of the freshly turned movie star in a stalwart performance in the film that should be the one to beat should prove enough of an advantage.  Off stage antics, including the dismissive Oscar nominee roast on SNL shouldn't be a deterrent here, especially considering her rival, Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty received a low turnout from SAG.  I wonder, however, if the constant celebrity pushings for The Impossible (from the like of people like Reese Witherspoon and Angelina Jolie) might sway a Naomi Watts shocker.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

I stand that Philip Seymour Hoffman (for The Master) and Tommy Lee Jones (for Lincoln) stand great odds, but strongly feel SAG will go with De Niro, because firstly-- this would be his SAG award (not so terrible to comprehend since the awards themselves were only formed in 1994, and well, the legendary actors output in that time, was well...not exactly awards worthy), and because his genially comedic performance in Silver Linings Playbook was a nicely calibrated ticking time bomb that De Niro handled nicely, if not exactly capturing the grandness of his greatest cinematic achievements.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

The dream that was dreamed was that Hathaway's star turn in Les Miserables would be awards bait.  While the film itself has caught itself in the midst of very divisive notices, that dream will continue on with SAG and beyond.  The surest acting category of the night.

Crystall Ball: Golden Globe Awards

A few notables for this most interesting awards season.  Because of the abbreviated schedules and the lack of the typical over-lapping of events, this years race may turn bonkers in a few short hours as the Golden Globes announced their favorites from the always interesting (!@#@) Hollywood Foreign Press Association.  Because the Oscar nominations were moved up this year, ballots were due before some of the more notable shocks the Academy provided this year.  All of which makes it a bit more confusing.  Here's how I think it will go:

BEST PICTURE (Drama)
Will win: Argo
Or maybe: Lincoln

Argo, despite the shocking Best Director Oscar snub for Ben Affleck may still be king of the world with the Globes who looove stars.   Lincoln tells a fundamentally American story, which may not have the same impact from this group (then again Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and even Django Unchained...all nominated do the same thing.)  Either way, I'm still going with Argo, fresh from it's Critics Choice victory.  However, the internationally more successful Life of Pi could shock as well.  Damn.

BEST PICTURE (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Silver Linings Playbook
Or maybe: Les Miserables

I'm guessing the Weinstein-loving HFPA will go for Silver Linings considering the critical drubbing of Les Miserables.  Then again, they do love musicals-- Moulin Rouge!, Dreamgirls and Sweeney Todd all recently won this prize, and Les Miserables has a heavy international flavor.  Silver Linings screenplay nomination makes me suggest they liked it a tad bit more...

BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Ben Affleck, Argo
Or maybe: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

I'm thinking it will come down the to the two shocking Director Oscar snubs for the win.  Bigelow didn't win the Golden Globe for The Hurt Locker, make me think this might be a way for a make-up, but the allure of fallen matinee idol making good on director potential me thinks will be too good for the HFPA to resist.

BEST ACTOR (Drama)
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Or maybe: ????

No contest-- unless the HFPA wants to submit themselves to even further ridicule and embarrassment, they will look no further than Day-Lewis' mercurial turn as Abraham Lincoln.

BEST ACTRESS (Drama)
Will win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Or maybe: Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone or Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Damn, another hard one!  Chastain has the buzz and the controversy-laden movie and she's a pretty, likable star in the making who gives a tremendous performance, but who knows if this group knows that, care about that, or even liked the movie.  Cotillard, who won for La Vie en Rose en route to that surprise Oscar victory may make the cut for what was assumed to be another run with Oscar, or Watts, may get an overdue credit.  Best Actress is confusing this year.

BEST ACTOR (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Or maybe: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Probably the hardest to call for Jackman or Cooper both make compelling cases however I'm going with Jackman, because he's a movie star and a charmer, and one, I assume, they've been wanting to celebrate for some time now.  Cooper-- who's great in Silver Linings, I just don't see as his time just yet-- it's more his welcoming nomination.  Still could go either way.

BEST ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Or maybe: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

No contest-- with the year she's had, she's didn't even need to be good in a good movie for the HFPA to praise her.  Enough said...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Or maybe: Anyone?!?!?!

A confusing one, that seems to have many plausible scenarios.  Remember, the Oscar nominations really shouldn't have any effect here, as DiCaprio was noticeably snubbed.  But he's again, a star, and a HFPA favorite.  However, I'll be the first to admit, I have little confidence in this one.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Or maybe: It won't matter, because Hell would have frozen over if anyone other name is called.

Les Miserables may have lost a lot of buzz and awards credibility due to some very harsh critics, but Hathaway's emotional turn as the dying and tragic dreamer Fantine is awards gold.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Will win: Lincoln- Tony Kushner
Or maybe: Silver Linings Playbook- David O. Russell

How strong is Silver Linings?  We shall find out tomorrow, but I feel, again, not honoring Kushner for Lincoln will be something akin to an act of treason.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Frankenweenie
Or maybe: Wreck-It-Ralph

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will win: Amour
Or maybe: The Intouchables

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Life of Pi
Or maybe: Lincoln

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "Skyfall," Skyfall- Adele
Or maybe: Not a chance 

May the odds be ever in your favor.  How do you see it going?