On first thought, the idea of a crazy, mind-bendy tale of a destructive ballet dancer on the verge of a nervous breakdown seems on odd fit with the respectable, middle of the road bait films that usually conquer Oscar. Plus this one has some freaky lesbian sex, that even without nudity, might make even the most liberal, adventurous film-goer a bit uncomfortable. Bloggers report the success of the certain screenings-- namely the AFI gala premiere last week that included all the important industry types and online awards buzz-keepers, yet I still feel hesitant to really proclaim something like this a sure thing with the Academy. I have many reasons to worry-- first off, my favorites of the year generally miss the big prize; my taste being far from the middle of the road typically. Secondly, and this one's a bit trickier-- it's easy to think of personal favorites of any given year, but to put to ones mind in the mindset of an Academy voter is a different thing altogether. The Academy has a large contingent of older members, one's with often finicky tastes, one reason why so many might champion a royal period piece like this years The King's Speech, which fits nicely into the Academy wheelhouse-- respectable, critically applauded, non-offensive. Not dissing the film, I haven't seen it yet, but likely no one's going to come out outraged, which may happen with Black Swan-- it's an intense, often very genre-oriented film, and again it has some freaky girl-on-girl sex.
Natalie Portman's bravura performance seems to be the easiest to recognize, for she's a) very famous and attractive. b) wonderful in the film, but more importantly, she dances and there's plenty of showy effort put into the film. c) giving a demanding, quite deeply felt performance, one of which suggest a range and magnitude she's never quite delivered on screen before. d) got the advantage of a great media hook. e) very famous and attractive; bears repeating.
However director Darren Aronofsky may be seen as a sort of an outsider to certain parts of the Academy. Perhaps because none of the films (even though they are master works in their own right) have ever being Academy-approved outside of it's actors, and there's more than a few caveats to those nominations:
- Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream (2000)- it's a great performance, but more importantly what probably secured the nomination was that Burstyn is acting royalty, and that level of respect may have transcended the fact that Requiem, while amazing, is a ballsy, daring piece of filmmaking that otherwise the Academy likely wouldn't have touched with a ten-foot pole; note the film received no other nominations.
- Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (2008)- again great performance, but Rourke had the advantage of the great media hook of bad boy comeback story, which never was as reflective of Aronofsky's skill as a filmmaker, even though it should have. Despite the massive critical reception of The Wrestler, and the fact that it's by far the most emotionally accessible of Aronofsky's work to date (including Black Swan), the film only received acting nominations.
- Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler (2008)- yet again a wonderful performance, that Aronofsky is a great one with his actors, yet has never been formally acknowledged. I have a feeling Tomei got in riding the waves of Mickey Rourke, and had the media hook of all her onscreen nudity.
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