A few notables for this most interesting awards season. Because of the abbreviated schedules and the lack of the typical over-lapping of events, this years race may turn bonkers in a few short hours as the Golden Globes announced their favorites from the always interesting (!@#@) Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Because the Oscar nominations were moved up this year, ballots were due before some of the more notable shocks the Academy provided this year. All of which makes it a bit more confusing. Here's how I think it will go:
BEST PICTURE (Drama)
Will win: Argo
Or maybe: Lincoln
Argo, despite the shocking Best Director Oscar snub for Ben Affleck may still be king of the world with the Globes who looove stars. Lincoln tells a fundamentally American story, which may not have the same impact from this group (then again Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and even Django Unchained...all nominated do the same thing.) Either way, I'm still going with Argo, fresh from it's Critics Choice victory. However, the internationally more successful Life of Pi could shock as well. Damn.
BEST PICTURE (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Silver Linings Playbook
Or maybe: Les Miserables
I'm guessing the Weinstein-loving HFPA will go for Silver Linings considering the critical drubbing of Les Miserables. Then again, they do love musicals-- Moulin Rouge!, Dreamgirls and Sweeney Todd all recently won this prize, and Les Miserables has a heavy international flavor. Silver Linings screenplay nomination makes me suggest they liked it a tad bit more...
Will win: Ben Affleck, Argo
Or maybe: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
I'm thinking it will come down the to the two shocking Director Oscar snubs for the win. Bigelow didn't win the Golden Globe for The Hurt Locker, make me think this might be a way for a make-up, but the allure of fallen matinee idol making good on director potential me thinks will be too good for the HFPA to resist.
BEST ACTOR (Drama)
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Or maybe: ????
No contest-- unless the HFPA wants to submit themselves to even further ridicule and embarrassment, they will look no further than Day-Lewis' mercurial turn as Abraham Lincoln.
BEST ACTRESS (Drama)
Will win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Or maybe: Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone or Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Damn, another hard one! Chastain has the buzz and the controversy-laden movie and she's a pretty, likable star in the making who gives a tremendous performance, but who knows if this group knows that, care about that, or even liked the movie. Cotillard, who won for La Vie en Rose en route to that surprise Oscar victory may make the cut for what was assumed to be another run with Oscar, or Watts, may get an overdue credit. Best Actress is confusing this year.
BEST ACTOR (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Or maybe: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Probably the hardest to call for Jackman or Cooper both make compelling cases however I'm going with Jackman, because he's a movie star and a charmer, and one, I assume, they've been wanting to celebrate for some time now. Cooper-- who's great in Silver Linings, I just don't see as his time just yet-- it's more his welcoming nomination. Still could go either way.
BEST ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Or maybe: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
No contest-- with the year she's had, she's didn't even need to be good in a good movie for the HFPA to praise her. Enough said...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Or maybe: Anyone?!?!?!
A confusing one, that seems to have many plausible scenarios. Remember, the Oscar nominations really shouldn't have any effect here, as DiCaprio was noticeably snubbed. But he's again, a star, and a HFPA favorite. However, I'll be the first to admit, I have little confidence in this one.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Or maybe: It won't matter, because Hell would have frozen over if anyone other name is called.
Les Miserables may have lost a lot of buzz and awards credibility due to some very harsh critics, but Hathaway's emotional turn as the dying and tragic dreamer Fantine is awards gold.
Will win: Lincoln- Tony Kushner
Or maybe: Silver Linings Playbook- David O. Russell
How strong is Silver Linings? We shall find out tomorrow, but I feel, again, not honoring Kushner for Lincoln will be something akin to an act of treason.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Frankenweenie
Or maybe: Wreck-It-Ralph
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will win: Amour
Or maybe: The Intouchables
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Life of Pi
Or maybe: Lincoln
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "Skyfall," Skyfall- Adele
Or maybe: Not a chance
May the odds be ever in your favor. How do you see it going?