Will win: Silver Linings Playbook
Ripe after the PGA and Globe wins for Argo, where it asserts itself it the frontrunner position even as the pesky Best Director snub for Ben Affleck stings, SAG should shake things up slightly in honoring Silver Linings, if anything neatly packaged fodder for the Screen Actors Guild, with its agreeably chaotic interplay of its actors, and their diverse styles, all merging and fusing together in David O. Russell's mental illness romantic comedy. While the huge ensembles of Argo, Lincoln and Les Miserables may split votes, this seems like the best bet. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was always doomed one of SAG's fatefully pleasant also-rans. Be mindful that the Best Ensemble SAG award typically has little heft on terms of the eventual Best Picture, as last year's The Help, and other past winners like Inglourious Basterds, Gosford Park, Traffic and The Birdcage can surely attest, while others may sight that the SAG victory was the leading component to upsets like Crash.
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Another safely assured victory in my book. Day-Lewis' masterful portrait of Abraham Lincoln cries for attention in the very way that this actor, as always, escapes and paints a beautifully vivid character study without constrictions of legacy. Actors will surely admire the performance as the Best Actor race has all but been solidified.
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
I'm going with Lawrence with say a 60% likelihood, since certainty freaks you out, but the catnip of the freshly turned movie star in a stalwart performance in the film that should be the one to beat should prove enough of an advantage. Off stage antics, including the dismissive Oscar nominee roast on SNL shouldn't be a deterrent here, especially considering her rival, Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty received a low turnout from SAG. I wonder, however, if the constant celebrity pushings for The Impossible (from the like of people like Reese Witherspoon and Angelina Jolie) might sway a Naomi Watts shocker.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
I stand that Philip Seymour Hoffman (for The Master) and Tommy Lee Jones (for Lincoln) stand great odds, but strongly feel SAG will go with De Niro, because firstly-- this would be his SAG award (not so terrible to comprehend since the awards themselves were only formed in 1994, and well, the legendary actors output in that time, was well...not exactly awards worthy), and because his genially comedic performance in Silver Linings Playbook was a nicely calibrated ticking time bomb that De Niro handled nicely, if not exactly capturing the grandness of his greatest cinematic achievements.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
The dream that was dreamed was that Hathaway's star turn in Les Miserables would be awards bait. While the film itself has caught itself in the midst of very divisive notices, that dream will continue on with SAG and beyond. The surest acting category of the night.