Wednesday, December 11, 2013

SAG Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations are upon us.  Now things get serious.  Here's my stab at making a fool of myself.

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels' The Butler

WHY THEM: 12 Years is the important, can't miss nomination get of the season.  American Hustle, August: Osage County, The Butler all have august and large ensembles.  Prisoners because of its bounty of award-caliber stars in a film I didn't particularly care for (usually one or two of them gets SAG acknowledgement.)  I vetoed Wolf of Wall Street on the conceit that it just started screening (American Hustle had a full week ahead of them), Gravity because, well, duh...same for All is Lost.

WATCH OUT FOR: Blue Jasmine, Her, Dallas Buyers Club, Inside Llewyn Davis, Fruitvale Station, Saving Mr. Banks

Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

WHY THEM:  Dern, Ejiofor, McConaughey and Redford seem unmovable.  That fifth slot is vulnerable, but SAG is a place where The Butler can make its mark.

WATCH OUT FOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Her; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

WHY THEM: Blanchett, Bullock and Thompson seem no brains.  SAG should go for the Streep, one assumes while Adams is a favorite trying something new in a newly buzzed about film.

WATCH OUT FOR: Judi Dench, Philomena; Brie Larson, Short Term 12; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha (I wish); Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said; Adéle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club  

WHY THEM:  Like all the acting categories, this one is hard to predict and a bunch of throws to the wall.  Abdi and Leto for breakthrough triumps; Hanks because he's an icon playing an icon; Fassbender because this category loves villains and Gandolfini because of industry respect.

WATCH OUT FOR: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners; Will Forte, Nebraska; Daniel Bruhl, Rush; Andrew Dice Clay, Blue Jasmine; David Oyelowo, Lee Daniels' The Butler; Matthew McConaughey, Mud; Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief; James Franco, Spring Breakers

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

WHY THEM: Just passing through.  Lawrence, Nyong'o and Winfrey are the only one I'm confident about.

WATCH OUT FOR: Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave   


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