Saturday, January 10, 2015

Golden Globes Predictions

It's Golden Globes time again and here are my last minute, somewhat thought out predictions for how the boozy, Tina Fey/Amy Poehler fest will turn out.  The other day, the HFPA website had a hiccup declaring Ava DuVernay's Selma and Rob Marshall's Into the Woods winners, but that was either an ad-hoc to trend on Twitter or a legitimate glitch.  Or, who knows....

"Big Eyes," Big Eyes- Lana Del Rey, Daniel Heath
"Glory," Selma- John Legend, Common
"Mercy Is," Noah- Patti Smith, Lenny Kaye
"Opportunity," Annie- Greg Kurstin, Sia, Will Gluck
"Yellow Flicker Beat," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1- Joel Little, Lorde

The Globes like stars and to be of the moment which could signal wins for Del Rey or Lorde, but I'm thinking this is a pretty easy win for Selma's "Glory." They'll get stars on the podium and it's the most respective movie of the group.  Plus, Selma's 4 nominations meant the HFPA must like the film and here's it's easiest victory.  Grumble: where is "Lost Stars" from Begin Again!!!

Birdman- Antonio Sanchez 
Gone Girl- Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross 
The Imitation Game- Alexandre Desplat 
Interstellar- Hans Zimmer 
The Theory of Everything- Jóhann Jóhannson

Hard one and actually a pretty good line-up-- 2014 was a memorable year for scores (even middlebrow bait like Imitation and Theory are a good fit here.)  Really, it could go anywhere, but I'm thinking Birdman's drums carry it to a victory.  Added bonus is Sanchez's score was deemed ineligible by the Academy so the Globes can feel all superior and stuff.  Kind of thinking the Oscar goes to Theory of Everything.  Thoughts?

Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie

LEGO seems to have the edge in this category, but the more international flavors of Boxtrolls and How to Train Your Dragon 2 could prevail as well.

Force Majeure (Sweden)
Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem (Israel)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)

Ida is the classy pick and the likely Oscar frontrunner.  I expect it to win here, but a small piece of my thinks Force Majeure might surprise.

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game 

Not easy.  All of them probably have a chance, even Gone Girl (the only one without a corresponding Best Picture nomination.)  Because the Globes consolidate the screenplay categories, it's difficult to kind of gauge on terms of merits-- how do you compare what Gillian Flynn did with what Richard Linklater for twelve years with Boyhood.  The Globes tend to like to share the wealth and my gut says The Grand Budapest Hotel will be rewarded here, perhaps cementing the film for a screenplay bid with Oscars (a la Spike Jonze with Her last year.) 

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Simmons has owned Supporting Actor the entire season.  Done and done.

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Arquette has ruled the critics awards and surely the frontrunner, but I'm still a bit unsure over HFPA's overall reaction to Boyhood.  Wouldn't be terribly surprised if Stone (or even Globe queen Streep) pulled off an upset.  Still going with Arquette.

BEST ACTOR (Musical or Comedy)
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

Keaton is ahead and will prevail, but BAFTA nominee Fiennes is a notable runner-up.

BEST ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy)
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Quvenzhané Wallis, Annie

I'm going Blunt for musical-loving HFPA for her role as The Baker's Wife in Into the Woods.  Here's the best chance to reward the film and the Globes like Blunt (she won on the television a few years back and was nominated for The Devils Wears Prada and Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.)  Yet, Adams (last years' winner in this category for American Hustle) could contend as could Moore (in the confusingly released indie Maps, which won her an award at Cannes last May.)  Moore, a frontrunner on the drama side for Still Alice could win two if the Globes really want to cement this as her year a la Kate Winslet/2008.  Still going Blunt.

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

There's a valid case to be made for each.  Seriously, I wouldn't be shocked if either of the five won and there's HFPA precedent for all of them, but it seems like Redmayne might have the edge for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking.  That he's such a charmer might be clinch it and if his speech is amazing, Keaton may be trouble with Oscar.

Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Julianne Moore should easily win here onward to her Oscar coronation.  There's a little blather going around that Aniston could upset, but that seems like a star-humping Globe move of a few years back (not to diss the performance- she's actually good.)  Since HFPA has made strives towards more credibility however, it's Moore's to lose.

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

What an awesome category-- the Academy's won't be nearly as good, sadly.  Since it's so good, it's also rather hard.  I'm going with Inarritu if only barely on the thinking that the visual daringly-do of Birdman will blind side the HFPA.  That being said, DuVernay has sentiment going for her (and Selma could use all the help it can get after a really rough week) and Linklater has a twelve-years-in-the-making beast in his pocket.

BEST PICTURE (Musical or Comedy)
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
St. Vincent

Oh, how joyous it would be if Pride could pull of the upset of a lifetime.  Not possible, but a lovely dream (see that movie now, people!)  Birdman is likely way ahead and unbeatable though Budapest is stronger than anyone could have previously thought and musical-loving HFPA have given this same prize to worse musicals than Into the Woods before.      

The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

I'm going Boyhood, but I'm way uneasy about it.  Just not confident that HFPA will gravitate towards Linklater's all-American indie experiment. Especially since Imitation Game seems so perfectly tailored to their sensibilities and has Harvey pulling the strings.  Then again, this group has surprised before here with noble recent choices like The Social Network and 12 Years a Slave.    

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