I'm churlish when it comes to predictions (much too timid), but like to think of possibilities so far seen this year.
Good reviews and decent box office (it's take is on par with last year's Best Picture nominee Winter's Bone) will help propel the indie to it's only bet come awards season: for Christopher Plummer for Best Supporting Actor. What helps is that Plummer is a legend (and an Oscar-less one at that-- his first nomination came in 2009 for The Last Station), but his subtle but beautiful work help grounds and stabilizes the film from falling apart from its own adorable-ness (the director is Mike Mills, married to Miranda July.) His beautiful dignity in playing a role of an elderly man coming out of the closet is absolutely refreshing and should play well come Academy screening and when critics prizes are distilled. The shame is that that's the film only real shot-- Ewan McGregor's graceful lead performance deserves acknowledgment as well, but due to the recessive quietness of the role and performance, that's not likely to happen. The screenplay, too, deserves something, but again not likely.
While Oscar may seem like a stretch. Think about it-- it's one of the only sleeper hits of the year with good reviews to boot, and with a handful of performances that feel rightly on their way to becoming classics. Kristen Wiig and Melissa McCarthy are the stand-outs (and likely Golden Globe nominees, at the very least), but if things start to turn come years end, the good folks at the Academy could do a lot worse (and have many times over) than recognize them. Both are longshots, but wouldn't be fun to image. Plus, perhaps an Original Screenplay mention isn't completely crazy.
Big question mark as to how well the last installment will play to the Academy. What the film has going for is, well the strongest reviews of any previous installment, and the biggest box office. Audience good will was never going to be a question mark however. The previous films have only received tech nominations (Art Direction, Cinematography and Score.) I'd bet, it at the very least wins something...it's a multi-billion dollar franchise on its last film, and the Academy (more often than not) exhibits itself as more pro-professionalism than pro-profound artistry more often than not.
Currently, The Help is killing at the box office, which if it continues, which is will, will only mean good things comes Oscar time. For the film stands little chance of picking up steam with critics top ten lists or accolades. What it has going for it is audience good will, coupled with decent reviews, and a cavalcade of women in the ensemble (all of whom, when you think about have an appropriate Oscar clip at their disposable.) Acting is the primary disposal here, and Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer seem primped for nominations this year. If things turn hairy for future films, it may even open up slots for Allison Janney or Sissy Spacek, or who knows, maybe even, Bryce Dallas Howard or Jessica Chastain. I imagine Academy screenings (especially for actors) will play very well. Other than that, it kind of depends on box office and media support...if the film jumps into The Blind Side-level of money (not unlikely, actually), Best Picture, Screenplay, and maybe Costuming may happen as well.
The top box office performer from America's favorite screenwriter will certainly get some attention come Oscar season, the question is how much? Best Original Screenplay seems a gimme. The problem with Midnight in Paris, is that no performer really stood out as 'best in show' and that will limit nomination tally, and likely merit zero acting nominations. That being said, Best Picture and, possibly even, Best Director aren't out of the question. Depending on how the rest of the year shapes up, coupled with the Oscar campaign that Sony Pictures Classics provides, alongside great box office and bona fide audience good will, it might end up have a great run.
There's been a bit of fuss over the great acclaim of Andy Serkis' great stop-motion work here, and how it might relay into this years Oscar race. The answer is that it won't. Not at all. The bias against stop motion\motion capture is too apparent in the Academy...it's too soon, otherwise Serkis might have already been acknowledged prior given his work on Lord of the Rings and King Kong. Give up on that for now, it's not going to happen. What will happen is that the wondrous effects wizards at Weta Digital will likely get a Visual Effects nomination this year, and might eventually become the frontrunner due the beautifully realized achievement of Caesar. Perhaps a Special Achievement Oscar is due to Serkis at the very least.
Terrence Malick returned after a six year absence (noticeably short for him) with a confounding, challenging and beautiful looking film, winner of the top prize at Cannes this year (which means absolutely nothing...the last time Oscar and Cannes agreed on best picture was 1955, Marty), but the film merited good reviews, and will likely make a lot of critics top ten lists (and possibly play well in certain critics awards), and earned respectable box office for the film it is...over $10 million for an esoteric essay on the meaning of existence is not nothing. That being said, Best Picture will be a hard sell (even harder with the new rules established...will 5% of number one ballots be allotted to The Tree of Life?) And who exactly will the movie play best to...directors (probably), writers (maybe), actors (question mark...and again they are the largest voting branch of the Academy), tech members (?) I think The Tree of Life will be in the conversation until years end, and will at the very least get a Cinematography nod, it might even be a frontrunner (Emmanuel Lubezki is long overdue and seemingly a genius in his own right.) Brad Pitt and Hunter McCraken got good reviews, but Oscars might seem to bit too much out of reach. Film Editing, Costumes, Art Direction might happen, and lo and behold, I think a directors nomination for Malick might be an easier get than Best Picture, since many assume the man's a genius, and I'm sure many won't get the film at all.
Other possible contenders:
Captain America- Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Original Song
Jane Eyre- Costume Design, Art Direction, Actress (way longshot)
Kung Fu Panda 2- Animated Feature
Page One: Inside the New York Times- Documentary
Rango- Animated Feature
Super 8- Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Film Editing
Tabloid- Documentary
Thor- Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Transformers: Dark of the Moon- Visual Effects
X-Men: First Class- Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Win Win- Original Screenplay
Anything I'm leaving out...I want feedback!
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