Best Visual Effects

Here are the 15 finalists in contention for Best Visual Effects at this years Oscars.  For the first time, there will be 5 nominees, instead of 3.  Here are the big guns:

• Captain America: The First Avenger
• Cowboys & Aliens
• Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
• Hugo
• Mission: Impossible- The Ghost Protocol
• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
• Real Steel
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
• Sucker Punch
• Super 8
• Thor
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• The Tree of Life
• X-Men: First Class

What's the odd fit here?  Obviously the esoteric origins of the universe (complete with dinosaurs) Tree of Life feels lost in the shuffle of noisy blockbusters and franchise stuff.  The victory, I'm suspecting, will likely be Rise of the Planet of the Apes in a nod at recognizing Andy Serkis.  Thoughts?