Saturday, January 11, 2014

Golden Globe Predictions

Let's see how badly I can embarrass myself this year.

BEST PICTURE (Drama): Gravity
WHY?  The Hollywood Foreign Press seems likely to go big with Gravity this year.  They like spectacle (they went for Avatar over The Hurt Locker a few years back) and Alfonso Cuarón's space odyssey was the biggest spectacle of the year.  This is a tough year, and while 12 Years a Slave is on its heels, that film (despite its pedigree) may be too specifically American (not to mention difficult to watch) for the eighty some odd (and surely quite odd) members of the mostly European-based HFPA.

BEST PICTURE (Musical or Comedy): American Hustle
WHY?  The HFPA clearly adored David O. Russell's freely associative ABSCAM con film (awarded it seven nods), plus it's an a newfound Oscar frontrunner and truly the most entertaining film in the group.  This should stand as one of the easier picks of the night.

BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
WHY?  Steve McQueen may take this-- the HFPA more than than often swap Picture and Director-- but Gravity is such a directorial feat that it seems likely that even if there is a shift between Picture and Director, Cuarón will remain the one to beat here.

BEST ACTOR (Drama): Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
WHY?  This category is extraordinarily difficult-- the entire leading actor slate this year is quite strong and headache-inducing.  Really, three men can be read as legitimate winners-- Redford for his legacy, McConaughey because he's a newfound movie star with all the heat, and Ejiofor because of the performance in a film that certainly won't leave the Globes empty-handed even if the top honor goes elsewhere.  I'm betting on Ejiofor, but just barely.

BEST ACTRESS (Drama): Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
WHY?  Blanchett is the easiest acting category to pick-- she's the clear Oscar frontrunner and an elegant, classy movie star whom all respect.  This would mark her third Globe (she won for Elizabeth and I'm Not There) and while Sandra Bullock is the bigger movie star who gives great speeches runs a close second, it's highly unlikely that Blanchett loses.

BEST ACTOR (Musical or Comedy): Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
WHY?  The dudes this year are intense to predict in both drama and comedy fields.  On a flip of the coin, I'm going with DiCaprio because he's the movie star that the Globes like a lot (he's gotten ten nominations and one prior win) in a hot-button movie that no one can shut up about it-- it will get headlines.  Bruce Dern comes a close second, but this seems like a gimme.

BEST ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy): Amy Adams, American Hustle
WHY?  In a category that's pretty amazing for the off-kilter choices of Greta Gerwig, Julie Delpy and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, but this award is between Adams and Meryl Streep.  I'm going with Adams because she's a hot movie star that, while having been nominated a tons all around, has never won anything before in a movie the HFPA did love.  Also, Streep doesn't always win (even thought it feels that way) and there seems to be a lack of passion for August: Osage County.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
WHY?  Leto has been winning nearly everything the entire season and appears unstoppable at this point.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
WHY?  The HFPA love movie stars-- love, love, love them, of which would point to a consecutive win for Jennifer Lawrence, the biggest movie star in the world at the moment.  Yet they also like to make stars and be the first to put someone on the map.  I'm going with Nyong'o not so much because of the strength of the performance but because the HFPA may want to be first to honor her.  Plus 12 Years a Slave seems too important a film to go home empty-handed.

BEST SCREENPLAY: American Hustle- Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russell
WHY?  They enjoyed Hustle it appears and this might be the place to give Russell something (he clearly wants something) since Director is out of reach.  If there's a spoiler here, I think it may be not 12 Years a Slave or Her, but Philomena, which is right up their Euro-elders alleys.

WHY?  It's the only nominee that isn't terrible.

BEST FOREIGN FILM:  The Great Beauty
WHY?  Complete gut instinct as I feel the buzzy Blue is the Warmest Color was likely not their cup of teaPlus The Great Beauty is Oscar-eligible, it may be prescient.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Gravity- Steven Price
WHY?  On the assumption that they really, really, really loved Gravity, that is half of the reason why.  It's also the showiest score of the field.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:  "Please Mr. Kennedy," Inside Llewyn Davis
WHY?  "Let it Go" is the biggest hit of the bunch and the likely Oscar frontrunner, but "Please Mr. Kennedy" (not eligible for the Oscar) would provide Justin Timberlake an opportunity to win a Globe.  That's nearly enough right there, but Inside Llewyn Davis is also a film about music and the song is also memorable.  U2's "Ordinary Love" from Mandela would probably be a close second.

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